Monsoon rains delayed,88 Percent Rainfall Forecasted: Harsh Vardhan

Indian Meteorological Department had forecast monsoon rains at 88 percent of the average.IMD has revised its rainfall forecast from 93 to 88 percent.The government expressed concerns about a below-par monsoon after the central bank, taking advantage of subdued inflation, cut interest rates for a third time this year on Tuesday.

Important Points

IMD has revised its rainfall forecast from 93 to 88 percent.

The latest prediction, however, has an error margin of 4 percentage points either way.

“Let’s pray to God that the revised forecast does not come true,” Vardhan said.

Rainfall of less than 90 percent is considered to be a drought year.

This means India will be experiencing two consecutive years of “deficient” rains as 2014 too had turned out be a drought year.

Harsh Vardhan said the north-west region which includes Delhi NCR, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan will be affected as per the forecast.

According to the government’s estimate, total food grains production has declined to 251.12 million tonnes in 2014-15 crop year (July-June) from a record production of 265.04 million tonnes in 2013-14.

A “deficient” Monsoon will also hurt the already sluggish Indian economy further and force the government to revise its GDP growth forecast downwards.

One of the main reason behind a poor Monsoon this year is the onset of El Nino.

What Is El Nino ?

El Niño means The Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The name was chosen based on the time of year (around December) during which these warm waters events tended to occur.

The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.

Effects of El Niño

El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world. The effects depend strongly on the location and the season. The strongest effects on precipitation are in South-East Asia and the western Pacifc Ocean, especially in the dry season (August-November). There are temperature effects throughout most of the tropics. The number of tropical cyclones also depends on El Niño in most basins. In boreal winter the effects are most wide-spread: from southern Africa to eastern Russia and most of the Americas.